Wednesday, March 25, 2020

COVID factors


Updated on 4/21

Georgia, which has over 19,000 confirmed cases, will allow businesses like fitness centers and hair salons to reopen Friday (4/24) and then dine-in restaurants and movie theaters the following week, though bars and nightclubs will stay closed.  (Monday, 4/27), and 4/30 to end shelter in place state-wide.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-mayor-announces-panel-plan-reopening-city/xpbJoK9KecqViQeuNxK7lN/

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/coronavirus-georgia-live-updates-whats-happening-today/3VZQTRLUGZGWVJ355QGDZO3I6A/

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What to expect if you get COVID-19

Most news emphasizes the rapid spread and number of deaths out of context of the surrounding numbers or pre-existing health of the patient, but few mention that the average person will be okay.


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-how-sick-will-you-get/


from the article:



“Why are some people completely asymptomatic, some have mild disease, others have severe disease but recover — and others have fatal disease? We are still trying to figure this out,” said Dr. Brian Schwartz, Vice Chief for Clinical Affairs in UC San Francisco’s Division of Infectious Diseases.
“It is a small subset of people that will go on to develop serious disease. Most will not,” he said. “We want to learn how to prevent people from developing serious disease — and if they do, figure out how to treat it the right way.”
It’s well known that death rates are higher among older people. Only 0.2% of people younger than 19 die. But for people between the ages of 60 and 69, the death rate is 3.6%. It jumps to 8% to 12.5% for those between ages 70 and 79 and 14.8% to 20% percent for those older than 80.
But there’s more to it than that. Monica Arima is age 64; her husband Adrian, at 70, is six years her senior. But she has asthma and diabetes, while his underlying health is good.
Emerging U.S. data confirms trends seen in China and Italy: Rates of serious COVID-related symptoms are higher in those with other medical problems and risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic renal disease and smoking. In a U.S. Centers for Disease Control report released on Tuesday, higher percentages of patients with underlying conditions were admitted to the hospital and to an ICU than patients without other health issues. There may also be a genetic influence.

...and here's another article that begins telling how the virus is mostly contained in China.

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Leading causes of death - See article


  1. The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.
  2. Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.
  3. Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.
Vaccine 6 months away (April - September, beginning October?)
https://nypost.com/2020/04/11/coronavirus-vaccine-is-six-months-away-lead-researcher-says/

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Where does the stimulus money come from?

I speculate that it is borrowed from China, ironically. I googled and found an article stating that it comes from bonds owned by private corporations. We know China owns most of our bonds, so I doubt it's a far cry from the truth that in the end, China will own our 2.2 trillion stimulus debt.


There is also the suggestion that the stimulus will go towards rebuilding infrastructure, which is much better than simply giving it away.


From the article:



Q: Will the U.S. Treasury Department have to print $2 trillion in dollar bills to pay for the stimulus?
A: Not exactly. Treasury doesn't have to print all those greenbacks because it can simply borrow the $2 trillion from investors by selling U.S. government bonds. The money that investors use to buy the bonds could come from their cash accounts, but more likely it will come from selling other investments, like corporate bonds

Individual payments

Check my status

When to receive checks
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/heres-precisely-when-youll-get-your-stimulus-check.aspx

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Did Trump call the corona virus a hoax?

...and for the record, here's a story with a breakdown on the accusation that 

Trump called COVID-19 a hoax - Go to 8:00 for what he said 'in context':
https://youtu.be/2mfuRVGdtTk

Excerpts: The Democrats: "Now they are politicizing the corona virus...Russia...they tried the impeachment hoax, they tried anything and this is their new hoax..." He then goes on to say how we are unified and doing great because we took action early, thereby acknowledging that they are handling the situation well.


So, in context, Trump is stating that the Democrats are taking advantage of the corona virus to attack him...the 'hoax' being how he is mishandling the situation, not that the virus itself is a hoax.


More here on Snopes.com


Again, it's all about context, and this is the problem with our media, the tactics that are constantly employed to create misinformation, to fabricate a story, and create controversy, and often violent response, is to take facts out of context and push it as a polarizing distraction. Once the damage is done, the truth comes out but by then it's too late. Cities have been burned and people ruined or harmed, sometimes with lasting insistence on the original misinformation.


I'm guessing this issue will be brought up again during the elections.


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Origin of the virus

https://youtu.be/5qO3MrhXM2A

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Commercial burglary up 75% in NYC with shelter in place
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-sees-more-burglaries-of-businesses-under-coronavirus-emergency-measures-11586008801

Anti-milarial drugs to treat serious cases, FDA approved

https://youtu.be/eG6cW97ixAs
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/31/824572119/clinical-trials-set-to-determine-if-anti-malaria-drug-effective-against-covid-19

Georgia - 3k+ cases, 100+ deaths

https://youtu.be/9PUWSqKm9h8

Daily status by county, cases and deaths.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

The highest numbers are in Fulton County, but numbers are relatively low:

Total population: 1,038,884
Cases: 624
Deaths: 19


Georgia population by county

Atlanta Gas prices - $1.33 - $1.39

https://www.11alive.com/gasprices

Travel restrictions from Mexico and Canada to the US end on 4/20

https://mx.usembassy.gov/wha-press-guidance/

Social distancing ends on 4/30, Atlanta now shows shelter in place until 4/13

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-briefing-death-rate-social-distancing

Atlanta - county by county shelter in place


State
https://www.walb.com/2020/04/02/kemp-signs-state-shelter-in-place-executive-order/

City https://www.atlantamagazine.com/news-culture-articles/atlantas-latest-coronavirus-updates-friday-april-3/

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/dekalb-county/city-brookhaven-orders-all-restaurants-bars-close-except-takeout-deliver/QIYG7FHBGNAVDA4CRTS2PV3CTY/


Georgia Shelter in Place - ends April 30
https://apnews.com/fab319a90ead9aae057f7fab059c2ccb
Office of the Governor posted in full online, along with a condensed FAQ version
Allowed:
Grocery store, hardware store, or pharmacy, to the doctor/dentist, get takeout or delivery from restaurants, and exercise outside. 
You can leave your home to care for a relative who needs it. 
You can leave your house to go to work if you have an essential job. 
You can even go to the gun store, as the order includes a specific clause that “nothing in this Order shall be construed to suspend or limit the sale, dispensing, or transportation of firearms or ammunition, or any component thereof.”
Essentially, stay home; limit your trips to the store and utilize curbside pickup/delivery; feel free to take a walk but keep six feet apart from others; and know that this is all temporary and for the greater good.

Beltline hours - reference article

6 a.m. to 10 a.m., trails will be limited to older adults and anyone with a compromised immune system.

From 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., the trails remain open for exercise, though officials still say that social distancing is required.

Considerations


After speaking with an Indonesian New Yorker, who talked about how Chinese investors buy up properties during recessions with cash collected amongst families. He also suggested the conspiracy that COVID was bioengineered to target the elderly, which would be consistent with the notion of Chinese eugenics, both in China and abroad.


How COVID may impact real estate - results are showing how home values may drop - more homes are lost as jobs are lost and owners are forced to sell. An interesting coincidence with the recent tax increases and rise of home values, ultra-low rates and low inventory - it has been a seller's market.


Apparently, Trump's tax measures in New York have driven away Chinese investors, and the overbuilding in Long Island City currently yields hotels offering rooms for $19 - $34 per night. The person I spoke to suggested that the best investment would be any distressed housing that opens up in Queens, then AirBNB rooms at $330/night.


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This is Part 2, my additional thoughts after writing my first more provocative post.


This is a just a string of thoughts, not a well composed thesis of any kind.


My idea of common sense:


If sick, stay home for 2 weeks after symptoms occur, and warn people you are sick and avoid them if you are invited to visit.


Otherwise, if healthy, go into the public as needed as though under normal circumstances, but obviously, don't deliberately go around people who are known to be sick.


Israel numbers give a pretty good model of reasons why noone should be shutting down the economy and shitting ourselves.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel



Coronavirus Cases:

3,035

Deaths:

12

Recovered:

79




ACTIVE CASES
2,944
Currently Infected Patients
2,895 (98%)
in Mild Condition
49 (2%)
Serious or Critical



CLOSED CASES
91
Cases which had an outcome:
79 (87%)
Recovered / Discharged
12 (13%)
Deaths









Thoughts

Suppose the average person assumes the burden of liability and risks going in public and operating. Those who are most susceptible stay home, and they don't contribute to the work force anyway. Those who do get sick for an average of two weeks, and go back to work, and are no longer a threat until the next mutation or vaccine. If not, the economy is certainly devastated and impacts our partners in the world economy as well, businesses close and individual lives are ruined. If faced with a choice of sickness or losing a job, a home, or all means of financial stability, most people would trade total ruin for a nagging cough.


Key thoughts about the handling of COVID-19.


Rate of mutation is slow, so a vaccine will be long-lasting. Article


People are likely not infectious 10 days after symptoms occur. Article


Therefore, after recovery from infection, the person is no longer contagious, cannot spread the virus,  and cannot get sick again unless or until a new strain emerges.


Most healthy people who are infected experience mild symptoms - fever, cough, headache. Death is less common for most healthy people.


If infected, people must self quarantine.


Here's what I found googling about quarantine time:


Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease.


Stay at home until instructed to leave: Patients with confirmed COVID-19 should remain under home isolation precautions until the risk of secondary transmission to others is thought to be low. Talk to your healthcare provider: The decision to discontinue home isolation precautions should be made on a case-by-case basis, in consultation with healthcare providers and state and local health departments.


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Another argument is that if people get infected the hospitals will be overcrowded and unable to handle. Wait a minute, the assumption is that anyone infected ends up in the hospital. If the vulnerable populations stay out of harms way, and average people are out and about, those who get sick will not end up in hospitals, they will end up at home - like Tom Hanks - doing laundry and dishes and taking naps. So many panic-based assumptions about this virus. It sounds less horrible than the flu we have every year. 


With a recession looming throughout this Presidency, it's notable that the last recession in 2009 also coincided with a pandemic from China, H1N1. But, Obama declared a national emergency, but noone remembers this and there was no shut down like this one.


If the President were asked whether if we should drive cars in the context of safety, one could easily make the argument that we should not drive based on data. There's no guarantee that anyone can drive a car and avoid a fatality. 


We now have a 2 trillion dollar stimulus - I'm sure we will borrow the money from China.


The American public believes in reality TV and loves to hate the bad characters, the shows rely on that suspension of disbelief to engage and create tension. Unfortunately, people don't realize these shows are heavily scripted, and viewers walk away believing that the show is an accurate representation of humanity. The characters deliberately say and do provocative things, to play the role of victims, villians, heroes and fools. The scenarios combine these characters to create gripping scenarios through tension and release.


To what extent is the American public watching a reality show with our Presidency?


Trump suggested opening churches by Easter because 'I don't know, I just chose Easter because it would be nice', then immediately countered by a doctor in the same speech who says Easter will be peak time for the infections to spread. 


The format of this speech is not an arbitrary coincidence - Trump wouldn't deliberately say something so flippant, as though Easter was an arbitrary date for everyone to congregate because it would be nice - and then deliberately follow his words with a doctor who contradicts him. Why was this method of presentation crafted in this way, and why would Trump be willing to speak in this manner and then be followed by such a retort by a doctor? Was this a way of licensing Americans to use their own judgement, or a way of playing good guy - bad guy, goofus and gallant to get Americans to read between the lines, or a way of being controversial? How much of this is designed to sidestep liability?


The President of the US is like a CEO. His role is to instill investor confidence, which means he's a salesman. But is he really the Chief Executive, or just selling the message that he's told by others in the background? Is he playing the role of an idiot, is he part of the problem or is he a heroic rebel and a maverick? I'm not sure. Does a good economy rely on perception of the Presidency or did Trump actually do something to make a difference? Obama says he inherited a good economy. Or was it all just timing?


Unfortunately, we cannot predict the future, so for now the public is gripped by liability and fear, emphasis on threat without relief focus on actual impact. As a result, we are held indefinitely in suspense and actual authority is invoked to require us to conform.


Will there be more crime or less during this period of shut down? News says it will be low because everyone is staying at home with curfews and warnings. But isn't this a little early to celebrate? A lot of people who are doing okay today will be desperate sooner or later. Some will be on the streets with no home to wall up.


Again, this is Part 2, my additional thoughts after writing my first more provocative post.


Monday, March 23, 2020

Hot Diggity (Dog Ziggity Boom)

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Hot_Diggity_(Dog_Ziggity_Boom)

"Hot Diggity (Dog Ziggity Boom)" is an American popular song written by Al Hoffman and Dick Manning. Published in 1956, it was recorded by Perry Como and went to #1 on the Billboard pop music chart in March of that year[1] and reached #4 on the British charts in May.[2]. The song's melody is almost identical in melody and triple-time rhythm to a portion of Emmanuel Chabrier's 1883 composition, España.[citation needed]
Perry Como's recording was done at Webster Hall in New York City. The conductor was Mitchell Ayres and the producer was Joe Carlton. The back-up vocals were provided by the Ray Charles Singers.[2]
The nonsense phrase of the song's title, repeated throughout the song, is used as counterpoint to the lines it precedes in the lyrics, as in the following excerpt:
"Hot diggity, dog ziggity, boom
What you do to me,
When you're holding me tight."
At the end of the song, Como exclaimed "HOT DOG!!!!" before the last two chords.
The phrase "hot diggity dog!" dates to at least 1928, when Al Jolson was recorded saying "Hot diggity dog! Hot kitty! Hot pussycat! Didn't I tell you you'd love it?" after a performance of the tune "There's a Rainbow 'Round My Shoulder".

Thursday, March 19, 2020

No business like COVID-ness


Read Part 2

Yet another polarizing social issue, Americans don't know whether to shit their pants or roll their eyes. 


And now we're rolling out an economic stimulus. So, China just effectively sold us $1 trillion pandemic. I mean, who do you think we're borrowing the trillion from? But we should have buyers regret, because we agreed to pay for it. Nothing sells like liability insurance. And that's what all this political correctness is really about, it's certainly not about values, justice or genuine compassion. The counterpoint to liability is opportunity. That's the yin to our yang.

I suppose I should come up with a bumper sticker or a T-shirt idea. 

All viruses matter. The coronavirus ate my homework. I would pray about the coronavirus but according to CDC guidelines two or more cannot gather. At least for two weeks. 

For the generally healthy, catching the virus means eight hours of high fever and then you can get on with your life. But all the emphasis in the media is on it being so contagious and how fast it’s spreading, how it’s going to get you. 

How long are they going to keep this going? As long as people are unable to go anywhere, the media can enjoy eyeballs on televisions, monitors, tablets and phones.


If it's really about conscientiousness, when will it ever really be okay? It's just not sustainable. 

There are some who will talk about trying to protect old people and flattening the curve, and that’s fine, but it’s not worth shutting down the entire economy, killing businesses and ruining lives. And come on, that’s really what this is about. They’ve never handled any other virus this way.

And all in time for the election.

You know who likes to wear masks? Millennials and communists. People who like having rules shoved way up their ass so they feel safe. Next up, who's gonna start shaming and peddling another F'd up government health care plan in the name of rescuing us from COVID?

COVID hysteria harkens back to all the saber-rattling following 911, everyone glued to the TV, watching the invasion of Afghanistan to a soundtrack of symphonic music. Orange alerts and government guidelines recommending duct tape, and all the fashionably non-intrusive black, square W stickers on all the giant gas-guzzling SUVs as we tear into the Middle East. The Toyota Sequoia (2000-2020), the mightiest tree in the forest!

During the immediate aftermath period, anyone who dared question history or whether the terrorists attacked because they 'hate our freedom' was marked as traitorous. After a few months, it was a clear social split and then anyone confused for being on the 'other side' of a 'discussion' became othered as an enemy. I recall an argument around Thanksgiving with one cocky jackass...ummm...my brother-in-law...who bragged how we'd be in and out in three weeks. Fast forward 19 years later, and our administration is just now teasing the idea of bringing our troops home. A lasting military and social quagmire.

Let's not forget, around this same time is when digital killed both the music industry and print. Enter the rise of social media and the death of newspapers, so marks a serious turn in our cultural demise. News and music begin to blur into anything for ratings. Anything other than news or music. And lots of ass. So, retro goes way vogue, mainstream movies and music subsist on regurgitated remakes and that sets the tone and trajectory for the new indie hipsters. And by 2009, we are in a recession. Not long thereafter, all the indie hipsters are playing in retro cover and tribute bands. And that's hip. So much for originality. Long live ass!

Fast forward 20 years or so later, noone remembers how we got here, and Amazon owns the Washington Post as it silently spreads its tendrils across the country like the new Roman Empire.

Regardless of alignment, people suck the tit of media like a cranky baby. So, politics are a fairly predictable puppet show, and the pendulum swings harder and further each way. Pick a team and buckle in for the next episode of Divide and Conquer.

Each President since JFK is more grotesque than the next. It's like watching Elvis, Liberace and Michael Jackson walk into a bar at the start of their careers, all wearing plain suits, and they all end up staggering out as some twisted caricature of themselves wearing capes, giant jewel encrusted glasses, and...looking like Diana Ross. That's entertainment.
But, back to our current crisis and parallel media circus. 

I asked a Chinese friend of mine why the Asians all wear masks. Is it because they feel suspect amongst the xenophobic Americans, or because they actually believe they need to? He said it’s because the Chinese government makes them do it so they are willing to do whatever they need to help. I guess that includes drowning their baby girls in a lake, whatever it takes for the common good.


But as for Americans, no matter how far removed or irrelevant, everyone has something to say. And something to sell. I haven't seen such a frothing swarm of zombie necrophiliacs pile on since Neil Peart died and everybody made their shitty YouTube tribute video. And an email from every corner of existence, anyone who thinks you are their audience, they can find an excuse to draw some attention to themselves surfing the corona wave.

All this nonsense about social distancing. Please, I don’t even like to wear condoms, good luck getting me to wear a mask.

One of the best Saturday nights of my life, I figured the usual crowd would be thinned at Johnny’s Hideaway - aka The Waiting Room of the Damned. Best looking crowd I’ve ever seen there, and just as suspected, plenty of space on the dance floor because all the crypt keepers and idiots stayed home. If this is what it takes to have decent looking women and space at Johnny's, we need to have a pandemic more often. In fact, a friend of mine called me up just before I left and said they were having a coronavirus party.

Right now, round trip tickets from Atlanta to California are $100, $75 to Miami, and the beaches of Spring Break are still packed. 

Look, this is not the plague, this is just a damn flu. You might even say corona has viral privilege. I mean, it's become a most undeserving rock star of a virus, overnight. It's cringeworthy, like COVID is performing a panic cover on American Idol, and The Black Death is squirming uncomfortably amongst the panel of judges, squished appropriately up against a very ghoulish Steven Tyler, and scoffing resentfully '...hell, back in my day...' This is how U2 must feel watching Cold Play.

Surely, the Corona Virus is destined to be Time's Virus of the Year. 


If we are so damn capable of putting emergency medical resources to work, why didn’t we do this with HIV or even herpes. Talk about social distancing, and here we are putting emergency resources towards what for most amounts to an 8-hour fever? We could’ve saved Michael Douglas from throat cancer, or Farrah Faucett from her anal warts. 

LA Fitness is closed for two weeks, then my apartment gym closed. So, I thought to ride over to the river park. As I made my way, I noticed the sidewalks were teaming with walkers and joggers. It’s almost April and people have spring fever, there’s no way in hell this virus is going to shut down the American lifestyle. 

Do you think people who drive SUVs give a fuck about the environment or other people? They’re sure as hell not putting on a mask and doing any social distancing. 

If you’re a big enough of an asshole to post a gym selfie or a sexy yoga pose on IG, you’re sure as hell not missing your opportunity to show off your beach body and new tattooey somewhere when all the pools are closed. Or to show your ass crack if that’s how you like to wear your pants. 


Whatever your demographic, clique or lifestyle, Americans enjoy their freedom. Even if they burn the flag or take a knee at a football game. That’s their idea of freedom of expression, whether they are letting their freak flag fly or just basking in their moment to shock and draw attention. If you want to slap on a wig and chop your dick off and then go into a woman’s restroom, an entire industry will boycott the state if everyone doesn’t happily go along with it. So, what’s so special about this situation? 

Liability is Americas kryptonite. One sniff and we way overcompensate and overcorrect, with lots of posturing and pleasantries. In exchange, everyone jumps on the virtue signaling bandwagon as a cosmetic cover-up, but it’s a marketing opportunity, even if it’s as minute as getting a like on Facebook. 

Athens, GA now has a 9 o’clock curfew to prevent social gathering. It’s a University town, so it's all about liability. That beer can wait. Sucks to be a local.

Hopefully Tom Hanks and his wife pull through and then nobody gives a shit anymore. If this is part of the next round of elaborate political hijinks designed to sink Trump's 2020 re-election by kicking over his economic sandcastle, it's yet another colossal waste. And for what, Joe Biden? The virus will probably take Joe out anyway. 

And the ebbing and flowing rumor of the next recession has been so tantalizing, maybe it would have turned that sandcastle to mush anyway, but apparently, we needed a bigger rumor, we needed it sooner. What? This is no rumor, it's a pandemic! Like police shootings. Gather the mobs and burn our cities to the ground! No, scatter the mobs and shutter your windows and doors. It's the apocalypse!


If Hanks kicks the bucket, he'll miss out on being Oprah’s Vice President in 2024. So, hurry up with that malaria medicine, click those ruby slippers three times, or whatever it is that they're furiously working, all the nebulous solutions they dangle to keep us in indefinite suspense. They can try to convince us there's no place like home, but we know better. Even with 5G.

From the latest article I found on Tom Hanks, sounds like he's already in training for VP, 
saying the symptoms were “much the same … no fever but the blahs. Folding the laundry and doing the dishes leads to a nap on the couch.”



Wednesday, March 11, 2020

HIV Cured

Second Person Cured of HIV Is Still Free of Active Virus Two Years On (cnn.com)39

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CNN:The second person ever to be cured of HIV is still free of active virus more than two years on, a study published by medical journal The Lancet HIV revealed on Tuesday. Two and a half years ago, Adam Castillejo -- previously identified as the "London patient" -- finished HIV antiretroviral therapy. He underwent a stem cell transplant to treat lymphoma and his donor carried a mutation known as CCR5-delta 32, which made him resistant to HIV. Researchers said that in treating his lymphoma, they believe Castillejo, now 40, was cured of HIV.

"Our findings show that the success of stem cell transplantation as a cure for HIV, first reported nine years ago in the Berlin patient, can be replicated," said Ravindra Gupta, lead author of the study and a professor in University of Cambridge's clinical microbiology department. Unlike the Berlin patient -- identified later as Timothy Ray Brown -- Castillejo underwent only one stem-cell transplantation instead of two and did not have radiotherapy to his entire body as part of his treatment. Castillejo represents a step toward a less intensive treatment approach, the authors said. Still, given the invasive nature of the experimental treatment, the authors caution its widespread use.